Preliminary U.S. Lodging Forecast – August 2011


PKF Hospitality Research (PKF-HR) Hotel Horizons® forecasts are based on historical lodging data from Smith Travel Research (STR) and economic forecasts from Moody’s Analytics (Moody’s). Each quarter, as new data is received from STR and Moody’s, PKF-HR updates their lodging forecasts. PKF-HR recently received Moody’s July economic forecast, as well as year-to-date hotel performance data from STR for the first half of 2011.

After reviewing the new data from STR and Moody’s, PKF-HR made the following observations:

  • Lodging demand continues to grow at a greater pace than expected given the sluggish economy
  • Average daily room rates increased greater than our forecast during the first half of 2011, but are only growing slightly above inflation
  • Moody’s outlook for the nation’s economy during the second half of 2011 continues to deteriorate

Based on this new data, PKF-HR has developed a preliminary updated forecast for the U.S. lodging industry. The following table summarizes the preliminary September 2011 forecast.

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